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Eagle Eye Betting: Week 3

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Week 3 – Florida State University (FSU) at Boston College

Spread: Boston College +26 (-110) — Over/Under Points: 48 — Moneyline: BC (+1400) FSU (-3200)

Okay, so if you are keeping track (and if you aren’t, don’t worry I am) my record thus far is 4-2. Like most, I was 1-2 in the upset loss to NIU and then a clean 3-0 sweep in the Holy Cross game. Let’s see how I fare this week as I make three more selections for the upcoming matchup at Alumni.

This week the Eagles face off versus the number three ranked Florida State Seminoles, and Hurricane Lee could shake things up in what should be a blowout. 

Boston College Offense vs. FSU Defense:

The Boston College offense is scoring 27.5 points per game behind dual-threat quarterback Thomas Castellanos. Through two games, Boston College has averaged 181.5 yards per game on the ground and 184.5 yards per game in the air. FSU’s defense is letting up an average 18.5 points per game, 108.5 yards rushing yards per game, and 250 passing yards per game. Boston College’s strength is the rushing attack. Look for FSU to stack the box forcing the offense to convert through the air on 3rd and long; something BC struggles with going 13 for 30 (43.3%) on third down this year. FSU can also get after the quarterback totaling 6 sacks thus far in 2023, adding in two interceptions. Look for FSU to test Castellanos as a young quarterback with some interesting defensive looks. I am not sure BC can keep up with what is likely their toughest opponent of the year. 

I can see BC scoring two touchdowns, the high winds may make kicking harder than it already seems for BC, so no field goals are predicted from me. I am projecting BC to score 14 points against the FSU defense. 

Boston College Defense vs. FSU Offense:

The Boston College defense as a whole is not functioning at a high level and will likely allow a lot of points on Saturday to an offense that is averaging a whopping 55.5 points per game. The Seminoles average 220.5 yards per game rushing and 303.5 yards per game via the pass for a grand total of 524 yards per game. The Eagles have allowed 27.5 points per game, 215 yards per game rushing and 151 yards per game via the pass. The Eagles allowed FCS dual threat quarterback Matt Sluka to pick them apart which makes me a bit concerned for what Heisman candidate, quarterback Jordan Travis, plans to do this weekend. BC’s pass defense has improved, but the pass rush is lacking with only two sacks through two games. Keon Coleman is a deep threat for FSU and may be a player to keep an eye on; he stands tall at 6’4” and weighs in at 215 pounds. Thus far in 2023, he has 12 catches for 170 yards and 4 touchdowns. The FSU offense as a whole is talented and should light up the scoreboard at Alumni Stadium. 

I have FSU scoring six touchdowns for 42 points against the Boston College defense.  

Vegas Talk

The BC line opened at +28 on Sunday afternoon and was up to +28.5 less than an hour later. Monday it went down to +27.5 in the morning, down to +26 in the afternoon, then down to +25.5 just 20 minutes later. On Tuesday it was back up to +26 where it has since leveled off. Similar activity was true for all books, in general the line has dropped 1-2 points since coming out. 

The over/under started at 56 on Sunday and was down to 51 by Monday late afternoon. It currently sits at 48, an eight-point drop from Sunday to Wednesday. My thought is that as the weather reports came out Vegas projected both teams to shift gameplans to focus on the run. As we saw last week when the clock is running it can limit scoring. 

The Florida State Seminoles are 2-0 against the spread (ATS) this season. The Boston College Eagles are 0-2 ATS this season. The Seminoles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games. The over is 5-0 in FSU’s last five games overall. Football Power Index (FPI) gives FSU a 96.7% chance to win the game outright.

For Vegas to have the over-under so low for a game they have FSU winning by 26 is not giving BC’s offense any credit. They are predicting a 37-11 game in a way. If that was the final score all bets against the spread would push at +26 and o/u 48. I think FSU scores more than 37 and BC scores more than 11. My prediction is 42-14 with FSU winning and covering the spread. 

Pete’s Picks

  • FSU -26
  • Over 48
  • FSU Moneyline

Written by Peter Collins

Twitter: @Pete_Collins_ 

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Basketball

DiMauro: All in all, a solid year for BC sports

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If you are reading this, chances are your primary means of remaining connected to Boston College runs through athletics.

Oh, and we’ve been tortured souls, too, especially in recent years. We are idealists and fatalists, demanding yet forgiving, loyal and resilient, even if sometimes it feels as though we make the long trek up the cliff to Lovers Leap … only to get shoved.

All of which makes the sports year of 2023-24 a time to celebrate. Boston College did itself proud, no small occurrence given that in this unsteady (perverse?) time of expansion and realignment, schools like BC must always look their Sunday best, with no overt warts or love handles.

Women’s lacrosse, BC’s working definition of pride and joy, capped the sports season with the national championship Memorial Day weekend in Cary, NC. It was the program’s second natty in four years, a three-hour infomercial for the entire institution and more proof that, yes, it can be done at BC with the right coach.

Acacia Walker-Weinstein – you’ll note that only the letter “W” separates her from “Einstein” – not only hung a banner, but helped BC earn a distinction few other athletic programs in the country could trumpet. How many other schools made national championship games (both televised by ESPN) in two different sports fewer than two months apart?

Think about that one: Men’s hockey, during an otherwise memorable season, fell short in the national championship game. But the Sons of Greg Brown did the school proud all season. Not a bad accomplishment to see “BC in the national finals” on the ESPN scroll in mid-April (hockey) and late May (lacrosse). It’s hard to buy that kind of advertising, particularly when and if realignment and expansion happen again.

Football won a bowl game over a ranked team at Fenway Park, returns a dynamo in Thomas Castellanos and then made the splash of a cannonball, hiring Bill O’Brien as head coach. Three other women’s sports showed promise as well: field hockey (11-7, made the ACC Tournament); softball (30-24, made the ACC Tournament) and volleyball, which continues to improve steadily under coach Jason Kennedy, finished 19-13 and made the ACC Tournament.

Otherwise, baseball gets a pass as new coach Todd Interdonato assimilates to the ACC and establishes his culture; the soccer programs (3-9-5 and 3-9-6) were lousy; and I remain concerned about men’s and women’s basketball. Put it this way: Sure feels as though better players are leaving than are entering.

Off the field, “Friends Of The Heights,” BC’s Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) collective, grew massively, keeping BC competitive in a cutthroat environment. Friends Of The Heights also homered into the upper deck, hiring veteran athletic administrator Jim Paquette as its new Chief Development Officer. Paquette will advise the Board on overall development strategies, using his 16 years as an administrator at BC that specialized in fundraising.

BC’s overall cachet also made a splash on social media when Forbes Magazine named it one of the country’s “New Ivies.”

Based on its researchForbes, the century-old national business magazine, reported that American companies are souring on hiring Ivy League graduates, instead preferring high achievers from 20 other prominent universities – “Private and Public New Ivies.”

BC joins private school “New Ivies” Carnegie Mellon, Emory, Georgetown, Johns Hopkins, Northwestern, Rice, Notre Dame, Southern California and Vanderbilt. Ah, to be judged by the company one keeps.

One school year hasn’t produced this much for BC in years. And it’s significant. The idea now is to build, not regress.

Full disclosure: There are many things I still don’t like. I’m told Father Leahy neither attended the Frozen Four nor the lacrosse Final Four. It is disrespectful to the players, coaches and alumni to have a leader who acts as if so much about what makes BC great is beneath him. And we still seem to have these spasms of tone deafness, such as patrolling the parking lots like stormtroopers the day of the spring football game.

But 2023-24 was an encouraging year for BC in many ways. Yes, we always want more. But we were getting less for a long time. Not this year. A tip of the cap to athletic director Blake James, his staff, the coaches and the kids.

We pause now to enjoy summer and await Labor Day night in Tallahassee. Here’s to 2024-25, hollering “Mr. Brightside” again with the kids from the crowded bleachers.

Mike DiMauro, a columnist in Connecticut, is a contributor to Eagles Daily and a member of BC’s Class of 1990. He may be reached at m.dimauro@theday.com or @BCgenius 

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Football

Boston College lineman Kyle Hergel selected 3rd overall in CFL draft

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The former Eagles guard was not selected in last week’s NFL draft, but quickly heard his name yesterday in the 2024 CFL draft, going 3rd overall to the Saskatchewan Roughriders.

Hergel, who spent one year at Boston College after transferring from Texas State. The guard was a huge success in helping transform the offensive line play in 2023, gaining the best PFF pass block grade at Boston College (86.6) with no sacks allowed and two quarterback hits on 402 dropbacks. This was good enough to earn All-ACC honorable mention and a trip to the East-West shrine game.

Recently signing with the New Orleans Saints as an undrafted free agent following the 2024 NFL draft, Hergel will seemingly look to catch on in the NFL this summer before trekking north of the boarder to play for the Roughriders.

John Pupel gets Patriots rookie camp invite

The former safety will travel to nearby Foxboro, Ma as an invite to Patriots rookie camp. After beginning his college career at Dartmouth, Pupel joined the Eagles in 2022. Starting 11 games last year with 81 tackles, a pack break up and a forced fumble.

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Football

Boston College’s Elijah Jones and Christian Mahogany drafted, others signed: Eagles Draft Weekend Recap

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It was a rather successful weekend for Boston College in the NFL Draft, as both Elijah Jones and Christian Mahogany were taken while guard Kyle Hergel inked a UDFA deal. In addition, longtime and former BC notables Jaelen Gill and Josh DeBerry have received UDFA deals.

Jones – The first Eagle off the board this year, Jones went 90th overall in the third round to the Arizona Cardinals. He missed the final three games of the season for undisclosed reasons but had a big year that shot up his draft stock with a conference-best five interceptions while also defending 13 passes. As a member of the 2018 recruiting class, the corner tallied 60 games at BC and racked up a First-team All-ACC selection this past year.

Jones’ 86.9 defensive PFF grade was the sixth-best in the draft class out of corners and he was the 11th cornerback off the board for the Eagles.

Mahogany – Mahogany sat out of the bowl game and had some noticeable buzz surrounding his name entering the draft, but the guard fell to the sixth round to the Detroit Lions. Mahogany missed most of the 2022 season after an ACL injury but came back fully healthy for 2023, posting the 16th-best total PFF grade out of guards in the draft class.

Mahogany fell further than many, with many projections putting him as a Day 2 pick, but given he’s 24 and his scouting reports present some clear downside, it’s not all that shocking that he fell all the way to the sixth round.

Hergel – Hergel didn’t exactly have any buzz surrounding his name but he managed to grab a UDFA deal with the Saints. He was a four-year starter between North Dakota and Texas State before he was a fifth-year transfer to BC, and he put up a solid enough season to get signed.

DeBerry – DeBerry signed on with the Cowboys, as he transferred to Texas A&M for his fifth year after four seasons with the Eagles. He was a big loss for BC’s secondary, as he started seven games this year for the Aggies and grabbed two interceptions.

Gill – Gill put up huge numbers for Fresno State this past year after three seasons with BC. After an initial start to his career at Ohio State, he transferred to the Eagles ahead of the 2020 season and through three years he put up 1,092 yards. He put up basically half of that in just one year with the Bulldogs, tallying 516 yards on 49 catches and six touchdowns.

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