Postseason Aspirations:

March is always a tough month to be a Boston College Basketball fan. In recent years, March has consisted of wrapping up the regular season with meaningless games, playing a game or two in the ACC tournament, and watching other teams play in the NCAA tournament. The Eagles have not qualified for the NCAA Tournament since 2009, when Tyrese Rice led the team in scoring, and Reggie Jackson was just a freshman. And while the Eagles are not particularly likely to make the Big Dance this year, there is at least some hope that they could make a run, which is far more than can be said for the past few seasons. Unless BC wins the ACC Tournament, their path to a tournament berth requires out-of-conference domination and a winning ACC record. 

 Last season without Quinten Post, BC went 6-5 before ACC play. But when Coach Grant got his star big man back on the court, the Eagles looked like a completely different team, going a respectable 9-11 in the conference. So if Post, and the rest of the Eagles’ squad, can remain healthy all season, the Eagles could see that third-year breakthrough that Grant has been harping on. With their upcoming matchup against Lehigh, the Eagles have a chance to finish their out-of-conference schedule at an excellent 9-2 record. This out-of-conference performance far exceeds what BC has done in past seasons, and keeps the window open for postseason play. If BC can continue this momentum into conference play, they are a strong candidate for a bid to the NIT Tournament, and could have an outside shot at the NCAA Tournament. 

Rest of the ACC:

Boston College’s tournament hopes will be determined by the rest of the ACC. If the conference has a down year and only gets five teams on the bracket, the Eagles will likely be on the outside looking in. But if the ACC performs well enough to get seven or eight teams in the Dance, now we’re talking. Seeing as the bulk of ACC play is yet to come, we have to rely on various ranking systems to determine where BC currently stacks up. This week’s AP Top 25 Poll includes 4 ACC teams: UNC (11th), Clemson (18th), Duke (21st), and Virgina (22nd). These four teams will likely occupy the top of the standings for most of the season, but the next 6-7 spots are completely up for grabs. 

As it stands now, Pitt, Virginia Tech, Miami, NC State, Syracuse, Wake Forest, and Boston College are all ranked between 40th and 83rd in the NCAA’s NET rankings. After BC, you have to look another 56 spots before you find Florida State. So, not there’s not much separating the middle of the ACC, and matchups between these teams could go either way. Coach Grant’s ability to win close games will ultimately decide if this team has any hope of qualifying for the tournament. 

AP Top 25 Poll (Courtesy of CBS) NCAA NET Rankings

Stats for Basketball Nerds:

Outside of the AP Poll and NET rankings, several advanced statistical models can give some more insight. Obviously, no model will be able to perfectly predict how BC will perform in the ACC, they can at least give fans an idea of where they should be. The two statitcal models I looked at were the popular KenPom rankings and lesser-known Haslametrics. As it currently stands in KenPom, BC is ranked 93rd out of 362, which is good enough for 11th out of 15 ACC teams. Based on BC’s adjusted efficiency margin (fancy word for rank), KenPom predicts that BC will win 8-9 games in the conference, which would about line up with last year’s ACC performance. An 8-12 ACC record is certainly not going to be enough to get the Eagles onto the bracket (though it might be enough for an NIT bid), many of those losses are on small margins, so a 12-8/13-7 record is not out of the question. 

Haslametrics is considerably higher on the Eagles than KenPom, and has them coming in at 55th in D-I and 7th in the ACC in “All-Play Percentage” (another fancy word for rank). Erik Haslam predicts that the Eagles will come out on top in some of those closer games, going 12-7 in their remaining 19 games. Depending on how competitive the rest of the ACC is, a 12-8 Conference record would likely at least get the Eagles in some March Madness disucssions.

Again, neither KenPom nor Haslametrics are gospel, and it’s important to remember that the games are played on the hardwood, not in the spreadsheets. If college basketball was perfectly predictable, there’d be no reason to play the games. Most BC fans would probably predict that the Eagles to finish somewhere between what the two models predict. But the fact remains that the middle of the ACC is wide open for the taking, and the Eagles certainly have the talent to put their name in the mix. 

KenPom Rankings Haslametrics Rankings

Best Case/Worst Case:

For BC to get their name on the bracket, they need a near-best-case scenario. Given the parity of the ACC, there are only two games that I’m chalking up as losses: January 13th at Clemson and February 10th at Duke. The Eagles are talented enough that they will have a shot to win every other game on their schedule. By no means am I saying that BC will finish with a 17-3 record in the ACC, but they should at least be in a position to win the rest of their games. Below, I’ve outlined my best-case scenario, likely scenario, and worst-case scenario for the Eagles’ remaining schedule. Having already dropped a winnable game to NC State, the best case scenario I see for BC is 13-7. To reach 13 wins, the Eagles have to dominate at home and steal a few on the road. This scenario assumes a healthy team, excellent execution in close games, and an ACC Player-of-the-Year type of season for Quinten Post.

Next, the most likely scenario that I foresee for the Eagles is 10 wins in the ACC. In this scenario, the Eagles take care of business against lesser teams such as Louisville, Notre Dame, and Florida State, and take a few other miscellaneous games. In this scenario, the Eagles beat who they’re supposed to, win some close games, and drop some heartbreakers. Since they performed so well out of conference, 9-10 wins in the ACC would likely be enough to earn a spot in the NIT, but not in the NCAA Tournament.

Lastly, I have the absolute worst case for the Eagles ACC schedule as 5 wins, and no postseason play. In this scenario, the Eagles might see some extended injuries to Post or Jaeden Zackery, or perhaps they struggle to execute late in games and are unable to close out several winnable games. Whatever, the case, the floor of this Eagles’ team is far higher than it has been in year’s past, and I struggle to see a scenario where Eagles’ fans see another 3-4 win ACC season. 

Closing Thoughts:

As I mentioned in the beginning of this article, March Madness is a long shot for this Eagles team, but not at all an impossibility. While BC has dropped a couple of winnable games, the mere fact that BC is six weeks into the season, and a tournament berth is still on the table is as much as any Eagles fan could have wished for. But, first things first, the Eagles must take care of business against Lehigh this Thursday, before gearing up for a competitive matchup against Wake Forest on January 2nd. Due to the holiday break, the next two games in Conte likely won’t have many fans. But if the Eagles can get some momentum heading into that January 15th matchup against Notre Dame, you could be looking at some long lines to get in the building.

Scenarios for BC’s remining schedule (courtesy of Jack Seiberlich)